Ontario's projected second wave of COVID-19 to culminate in October

Ontario; #Covid19Forecasts; COVID19ModellingCollaborations; #RapidRiseInInfections

Ottawa, Sep 28 (Canadian-Media): ​Fresh projections from forecasts of COVID-19 Modelling Collaborative effort of scientists and physicians from the University of Toronto, University Health Network, and Sunnybrook Hospital suggest that Ontario's second wave of COVID-19 will peak in mid- to late October, media reports said.

Image: Covid-19 Pandemic. Image credit: Twitter handle

Owing to the average number of new cases reported daily currently in Ontario being four times higher than what it was at the end of August, Ontario's Premier Doug Ford's government has since culled limits on the size of private gatherings, reduced opening hours for bars, and strip clubs ordered to close.

Based on the recent weeks' accelerating speed in Ontario's infection rate, the model projected it could exceed 1,000 new cases per day by the middle of October unless subjected to stricter public health measures to slow the rise in infection.

These projections may put more demands on intensive care units with the need to cancel non-emergency surgeries.

The research team also predicted that demographics of who gets infected in the coming weeks during the second wave would impact Ontario's hospitals.
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"Right now, we have predominantly younger, healthy people (contracting COVID-19 in Ontario)," said Beate Sander, a scientist at the University Health Network and Canada Research Chair in economics of infectious diseases. "But what we've seen in other jurisdictions is that it really spills over into other population groups, " reported by CBC News.