#Canada; #Covid19Pandemic; #LongTermCareHomes; #FederalProjections; #DiseaseModels
Ottawa, Apr 16 (Canadian-Media); Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said April 16 that the number of deaths due to the the COVID-19 pandemic, which amounted to more than 31,000 has surpassed the federal projections of between 11,000 and 22,000 over the course of the pandemic published last week by, media reports said.
Justin Trudeau. Image credit: Official site
Unexpected outbreaks of the disease in long-term care facilities was the main cause of the surge in deaths in Canada.
COVID-19 being a new disease and not fully understood had caused uncertainty in disease models which rely on inconsistent and incomplete sources of data.
According to Dr. Thersa Tam, Chief Public Health Officer of Canada, nearly half of all deaths have been linked to long-term care homes. Both Ontario and Quebec are grappling with outbreaks in these facilities.
Dr. Tam said she expects the case fatality rate to increase as the growth rate of infections continues to decrease.
According to the latest models from the Public Health Agency of Canada, the federal government is now projecting between 1,200 and 1,620 pandemic deaths by Apr. 21.
The country already has passed the lower end of that range, but Dr. Tam said the numbers provided will be subjected to variations those projections change overtime.